Severe Weather Outlook (2024)

Today's SPC Convective Outlook
Map showing today's overall severe thunderstorm potential in the continental USA. This map is updated several times during the day. (see below for convective outlook map explanation).
Source: NOAA SPC
Severe Weather Outlook (1)

Today's Tornado, Hail and High Wind Risk
Maps showing today's risk potential for tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds in the continental USA. These maps are complements to the Day 1 outlook map shown above. As a general rule, any probabilities greater than 15% indicate a significant risk level. For instance, a 15% or greater risk for tornadoes usually indicates a possible tornado outbreak. NOTE: Color coding on these probability maps does not follow the convention of the main convective outlook maps.

Severe Weather Outlook (2)
Today's Tornado Risk
Severe Weather Outlook (3)
Today's Large Hail Risk
Severe Weather Outlook (4)
Today's High Wind Risk
SPC Convective Outlooks for Upcoming 2 Days
Maps showing the severe thunderstorm potential for tomorrow (Day 2) and the day after tomorrow (Day 3). The Day 2 map is updated twice per day, the Day 3 map is updated once per day. These are thumbnails, click on each map to enlarge: (see below for convective outlook map explanation).
Severe Weather Outlook (5)

(Day 2)
Severe Weather Outlook (6)
Day after Tomorrow

(Day 3)

Meteorologists at the SPC (NOAA Storm Prediction Center, in Norman, Oklahoma issue daily severe thunderstorm forecasts called Convective Outlooks. These outlook maps show where in the United States that severe storms are likely to occur. (A severe thunderstorm is defined as having large hail, damaging winds and/or tornadoes).

Convective outlooks are issued throughout the day for Day 1 (today), Day 2 (tomorrow) and Day 3 (day after tomorrow). The Day 1 outlook is accompanied by probability maps for tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds. The convective outlooks give us a good idea of the risk of severe weather in a particular area.

The areas of severe thunderstorm risks on the SPC maps are designated by color-coded lines:

Severe Weather Outlook (7)

General Thunderstorm Risk: The areas outlined in orange are at risk for normal garden-variety thunderstorms with lightning, heavy rain, and possibly small hail. Severe weather is slightly possible but not expected in a General Thunderstorm risk zone. If your area is in a General Thunderstorm zone, keep an eye out for potential storm-related dangers in your area such as lightning and heavy rain, especially if you plan to be outdoors. This type of designation is very common, as there is usually a General Thunderstorm zone somewhere in the country almost every day of the year.

Severe Weather Outlook (8)

Slight Risk: The areas outlined in green are at a slight risk for severe thunderstorms. In a Slight (SLGT) Risk zone, thunderstorms are expected to occur, with a chance for scattered severe thunderstorms. Slight Risk zones are common in the spring and summer and are associated with stronger thunderstorm events. If your area is in a Slight Risk zone, expect a heavy thunderstorm or two sometime during the day or night and plan accordingly.

Severe Weather Outlook (9)

Moderate Risk: The areas outlined in red have a moderate risk for severe thunderstorms. In a Moderate (MDT) Risk zone, thunderstorms are expected to occur, with many of them expected to be severe. Moderate Risks are less common and are associated with more serious, damaging outbreaks of severe weather including tornadoes, large hail and/or damaging winds. If your area is in a Moderate Risk zone, you should monitor news and weather media sources throughout the day for possible warnings, be on the alert for dangerous weather conditions, and have a plan to take appropriate shelter if needed.

Severe Weather Outlook (10)

High Risk: The areas outlined in light purple have a high risk for severe thunderstorms. In a High Risk zone, widespread coverage of numerous, very damaging severe thunderstorms is expected. High Risks are rare and are associated with significant, dangerous outbreaks of severe weather, such as multiple strong long-lived tornadoes, very large hail in many locations, and/or very high straight-line winds over a large area. If your area is in a High Risk zone, take the weather situation seriously and be prepared to seek shelter and deal with after-effects such as power outages and blocked roads. Your local media and emergency management will likely already be covering and preparing for the threats, so keep a radio or television on to keep up to date on the situation. A High Risk zone issued for urban areas often signals an impending weather disaster that must be taken seriously.

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Severe Weather Outlook (2024)


What is a severe weather outlook? ›

Public Severe Weather Outlooks

The Public Severe Weather Outlooks (PWO) are issued when a potentially significant or widespread tornado outbreak is expected.

What is the tornado prediction for 2024? ›

AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno stated “when it comes to severe weather in May, the atmosphere doesn't hold anything back." AccuWeather predicts anywhere from 1,250 to 1,375 tornadoes across the country in 2024. That's a downturn from the 1,423 reported in 2023.

Did a tornado touch down in Cumberland, RI? ›

Where the tornado touched down in New England. A tornado-warned system brought damage starting in Lincoln, Rhode Island. The tornado then moved through Cumberland, Rhode Island and ended in North Attleboro. The NWS said the tornado reached a maximum intensity of around 100 mph.

What does marginal mean in weather? ›

Marginal Risk (of severe thunderstorms) An area of severe storms of either limited organization and longevity, or very low coverage and marginal intensity.

What is a outlook mean in weather? ›

a prediction about how something (as the weather) will develop.

When was the last EF5 tornado? ›

The nation's last EF-5 tornado struck Moore, Oklahoma, on May 20, 2013.

What states are in Tornado Alley 2024? ›

Tornado Alley is a part of the central United States with a unique combination of geographic and meteorological factors that make it more susceptible to tornadoes. This area encompasses much of northern Texas northward through Oklahoma, Kansas, and Missouri and parts of Louisiana, Iowa, Nebraska, and eastern Colorado.

Is Tornado Alley shifting? ›

What has changed most: The largest increase in tornadoes between the two 35-year periods has been from western Kentucky and the lower Ohio Valley to Mississippi and Louisiana. Fewer tornadoes have occurred in recent decades in the Plains, from parts of Texas to Oklahoma, eastern Kansas and western Missouri.

Which state has the most tornadoes? ›

Texas leads the nation in the number of tornadoes that occur each year on average, followed by Kansas. Texas leads the nation for the average number each year only because of its size.

What tornado went through 3 states? ›

On March 18, 1925, the Great Tri-State Tornado tore across Southeast Missouri, Southern Illinois, and Southwest Indiana.

Where did the worst tornado hit? ›

Deadliest single tornado in US history

The Tri-State tornado of March 18, 1925, killed 695 people in Missouri (11), Illinois (613), and Indiana (71). The outbreak it occurred with was also the deadliest known tornado outbreak, with a combined death toll of 747 across the Mississippi River Valley.

Is there wind in the middle of a tornado? ›

From these radar observations, we have learned that tornadoes usually have a clear area in their centers, or at least a zone that is rain- and debris-free. This area also has intense vertical winds that sometimes are strong enough to suck pavement up from roads.

Is a 2% chance of a tornado high? ›

Minimum Action: Preparations should be made for a very low likelihood (or a 2 to 4% probability) of tornadoes; isolated tornadoes of F0 to F1 intensity possible. Potential Impact: The potential for isolated locations to experience minor to moderate tornado damage (see below).

What does M mean on a weather map? ›

Tropical Depression - wind speed less than 39 mphS: Tropical Storm - wind speed between 39 mph and 73 mph H: Hurricane - wind speed between 74 mph and 110 mph M: Major Hurricane - wind speed greater than 110 mph The cone on the map indicates the potential path of the storm, and it indicates the uncertainty of where the ...

What are the purple boxes on Weatherbug? ›

A purple shaded area is the strongest of the 6 categories and means a very dangerous tornado outbreak or derecho is forecast. Storms will be long-lived, widespread, and very intense. Just remember, the higher the risk category the more dangerous the weather situation is for a particular day.

What are the types of weather outlook? ›

Weather forecasting is predicting atmospheric conditions of the atmosphere for a given location. There are four types of forecasts: short-range (12-48 hours), medium-range (3-7 days), long-range (8 days +), and hazardous/severe weather forecasts.

What is the definition of severe weather? ›

September 2021. Severe weather is any dangerous meteorological phenomenon with the potential to cause damage, serious social disruption, or loss of human life. These vary depending on the latitude, altitude, topography, and atmospheric conditions.

What does the severe weather outlook chart depict? ›

Description: This product depicts the area where the forecaster expects convection or severe convection to occur during the first 24-hour period. The product denotes the areas that have a marginal, slight, enhanced, moderate, or high risk of severe thunderstorms during the period.

What are 5 examples of severe weather? ›

Learn all about thunderstorms, tornadoes, hail, lightning, floods, damaging winds and severe winter weather.

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